Brewing Trade Troubles: How U.S. Coffee Tariffs Are Percolating Through the Market

Americans love their coffee. About two-thirds of Americans drink coffee every day – more than any other beverage, even tap water. Whether it's the morning cup at home or the afternoon latte from a local café, coffee is a routine comfort and necessity for millions. But recently, that daily cup has been getting more expensive and harder to source, and it's not just due to bad weather on coffee farms or pandemic supply chain kinks. A new factor is brewing trouble in the coffee world: tariffs on imported coffee imposed by the United States.

In a move that shocked the industry, the U.S. government introduced hefty tariffs on coffee imports since the colonial era. These tariffs – essentially taxes on foreign coffee beans and products – are already starting to ripple through the economy. In this article, we'll explore the economic impacts of these tariffs, how they affect consumer prices and habits, the response and adaptations by the coffee industry (from roasters to retailers), any regional differences in how the pain is felt, and the policy context behind these changes. We'll draw on recent data (mostly post-2020) and expert insights to paint a comprehensive picture, all in an accessible, conversational tone. So refill your mug and let's dive in.

Economic Impacts: Coffee Tariffs, Rising Costs, Prices, and Shifting Supply Chains

When the U.S. announced new coffee import tariffs in early 2025, it marked a historic shift in trade policy. Virtually all the coffee Americans drink is imported – coffee simply can’t be grown in most of the United States (aside from small amounts in Hawaii and a bit in California), so we rely on beans from Latin America, Africa, and Asia. For decades, the U.S. deliberately kept coffee duty-free to ensure a steady, affordable supply. That’s why these recent tariffs are unprecedented – the first U.S. tariffs on coffee since colonial times.

What exactly was announced? The new tariffs, unveiled in April 2025 as part of a broader trade measure, slap extra import fees on coffee from many major producing countries. Rates vary by country: for example, coffee from Vietnam – the world’s second-largest coffee producer – now faces a whopping 46% tariff, Indonesia’s coffee has a 32% tariff, and even beans from Brazil and Colombia (the #1 and #3 producers globally) are hit with a 10% tariff. In total, 15 of the world’s top 20 coffee-producing countries were targeted with new fees ranging from 10% to 46%. In other words, most of the global coffee supply that Americans depend on just got taxed heavily.

These tariffs immediately add cost and complexity at every step of the coffee supply chain. Importers now have to pay tens of millions more in taxes for the same coffee they were buying before. Roasters – from huge companies that supply grocery store brands to small artisanal coffee roasters – see the prices on their green (unroasted) coffee beans spike overnight. According to a Reuters report, the 46% tariff on Vietnamese coffee means roughly $2,500 extra cost per ton of coffee for U.S. buyers. To put that in perspective, robusta coffee futures (the type Vietnam predominantly produces) were trading at around $5,390 per ton in early April 2025. So nearly half the value of the coffee is now added as a tax for Vietnamese beans, which is a massive increase in cost.

On top of tariffs, it’s worth noting that coffee prices were already very high due to other factors. In 2021 and 2022, global coffee prices surged to near-record levels. Bad weather (like droughts and frost in Brazil) and pandemic-related supply chain snags have pushed the price of coffee beans way up. Imported coffee prices have risen about 65% since January 2021 even before any tariffs. The coffee market was already jittery with high costs, and then tariffs poured gasoline on the fire.

Economically, tariffs on such a critical import have several ripple effects:

• Higher Import Costs and Trade Volumes: The U.S. is the world’s largest coffee importer, accounting for roughly 18–19% of global coffee imports by value. In 2023, the U.S. imported about $8.2 billion worth of coffee. A blanket 20% tariff on that amount (for example) would add $1.64 billion in extra costs per year, pushing the bill to nearly $10 billion. We now have a range of tariffs, not a single rate, but in aggregate, it’s a huge new cost. This is likely to reduce trade volumes over time, as some importers may cut back or seek cheaper sources. If one country’s beans become too pricey due to a high tariff, roasters might buy more from another country with a lower tariff. For instance, Vietnam has been the #3 supplier of coffee to the U.S. (mostly supplying robusta beans for instant coffee and certain blends). With a 46% duty, many U.S. roasters will try to shift sourcing away from Vietnam, perhaps buying more from Brazil or other Latin American countries that “only” have a 10% tariff. We could see trade flows realign, with Vietnam’s U.S. market share dropping and others picking up the slack. One coffee broker noted, “Vietnam is the big one that sticks out… it will be a challenge for the supply chain and end users, with added costs”. Importers are scrambling to adjust contracts and supply lines, but this isn’t always simple – Vietnam specializes in robusta, a type not as widely grown in, say, Colombia.

  
  

• Supply Chain Complexity: Tariffs also introduce bureaucratic complexity. Importers have to deal with customs classifications, figuring out which shipments get hit at which rate. There was even uncertainty about shipments already en route when the tariffs hit – would those beans on a ship crossing the ocean suddenly incur a huge tax on arrival? Questions like these add confusion and may lead to delays at ports or hesitance in placing new orders. Some U.S. roasters might try to bring in coffee through intermediate countries or special trade zones, but ultimately a tariff is usually based on the country of origin of the coffee, so it’s hard to dodge. One temporary relief: the White House granted a short pause or exemption for imports from Canada and Mexico that meet origin rules under the USMCA trade agreement. That suggests coffee grown in Mexico (a modest producer) or re-exported via Canada might escape the tariff for now, but those sources are limited. Overall, supply chains are facing a new maze of rules.

  
  

• Global Market Effects: Because the U.S. is such a big buyer, our tariffs can affect global prices. If U.S. demand for, say, Vietnamese robusta drops sharply, Vietnam might have excess supply and could lower its prices to sell to Europe or China. Indeed, analysts point out that European and Chinese buyers might benefit from our tariffs: they can buy Vietnamese coffee at somewhat lower world prices since we’re effectively shunning it, whereas U.S. buyers will be competing to buy more from Brazil and others. This could lead to a strange split in the world market – coffee is cheaper in one region, and more expensive in another, at least temporarily. In the global futures markets, just the announcement of U.S. tariffs caused coffee prices to wobble as traders worried about demand. One report noted that both coffee and cocoa futures fell slightly right after the tariff news, on fears that U.S. demand would soften due to higher costs. In the long run, if these tariffs persist, producing countries may focus more on non-U.S. markets or even see political pressure to negotiate trade concessions to get the tariffs removed.

  
  

In short, economically, these tariffs inject significant cost and uncertainty. The immediate effect is upward pressure on prices and potential shifts in where coffee is sourced. “This is big,” said one European trader. “The tariff on Vietnam means $2,500 more per ton” for U.S. buyers. Many in the industry, from green coffee importers to commodity analysts, expect price increases to be passed along the chain. Let’s examine what that means for everyday coffee drinkers.

Consumer-Level Effects: Your Morning Cup Might Cost More

What do these tariffs mean for coffee lovers and everyday consumers? The short answer is higher prices and possibly subtle changes in what coffee is available. If you’ve noticed your grocery store coffee or coffee shop latte getting pricier over the past year, you’re not alone. Coffee drinkers have already been paying more, thanks to general inflation and prior supply issues – and tariffs could make it even worse.

Consider some numbers: U.S. retail coffee prices have been climbing steadily. By late 2024, Americans were paying roughly 20% more for a pound of ground coffee than they did in April 2023. According to industry data, a one-pound bag of ground coffee averaged about $6.47 in U.S. supermarkets in September 2024, up 6.3% from the year before. Fast forward to early 2025, and reports noted the price hit around $7 per pound in January, which is about 75% higher than it was in January 2020(when it was around $4). So even before tariffs, your coffee budget was probably feeling the squeeze.

Tariffs add an extra tax that companies are likely to pass on to consumers. The Consumer Brands Association (a trade group representing food and beverage companies) bluntly explained that tariffs on ingredients like coffee act as a tax on consumers – foreign exporters aren’t the ones paying it, the costs are incurred by U.S. importers and will ultimately be reflected in the prices we pay at the checkout. As one analyst put it,“Tariffs are taxes, paid by U.S. consumers and manufacturers, not foreign nations”. So you can expect the cost of packaged coffee, K-cups, instant coffee, and even that espresso at your café to creep up.

How much more might you pay? Industry experts estimated that the new tariffs could lead to a further 15–20% rise in U.S. coffee prices in the coming months. If a $6.50 bag goes up 15%, that’s about $7.50 for the same bag. Some worst-case predictions were even higher if the full tariffs stick: that grocery store average of $6.47/lb could have ended up around $7.44 with added tariff costs. At coffee shops, where margins are slim, even a small increase in bean prices can prompt a hike in the price of a cup. You might see your $5.00 latte become $5.50, for example, or the local diner might tack on an extra 25 cents for a refill.

For now, we’re still in the early days – not every coffee on the shelf instantly jumped in price when tariffs were announced. Many coffee companies have inventories and contracts. They may have coffee beans that were purchased months ago at pre-tariff prices, or locked-in contracts that temporarily shield them. So there could be a lag of a few weeks or months before the full effect is felt at retail. However, as new shipments taxed with tariffs flow through, consumers will notice.

We should also talk about consumption habits. Will people drink less coffee if it gets more expensive? Coffee has a bit of an addictive quality (caffeine fixes are hard to give up), and Americans are notoriously loyal to their coffee. Historically, coffee consumption is relatively price inelastic – meaning most people don’t drastically cut back if the price rises moderately. Instead, they might adjust how or what they consume. For example, during the pandemic and the recent inflation surge, data showed that while the quantity of coffee Americans drink didn’t change much, where and what they drink did change. If coffee becomes pricier:

• More people may brew at home instead of buying from coffee shops to save money. (We saw this pattern during COVID-19 lockdowns, and although folks returned to cafés afterward, an elevated at-home consumption persisted through 2023.)

  
  

• Consumers might trade down to cheaper brands or blends. A budget shopper might switch from a premium single-origin bean to a more affordable mass-market blend. Those blends often contain more robusta (the cheaper, more caffeinated but harsher-tasting coffee species) mixed with arabica. Ironically, robusta-heavy products could see the biggest cost pressure because Vietnam (a top robusta source) got the steep 46% tariff. So even the “cheap” coffee might jump in price disproportionately. It’s a bit of a catch-22 for value-seekers.

• We might see smaller package sizes or shrinking portions as companies try to keep price points the same (the old “shrinkflation” tactic – e.g., 10 oz bags instead of 12 oz for the same price).

• Some consumers could try coffee alternatives or stretchers. In tough times historically, people have used chicory or other roasted grains to stretch their coffee supply. This isn’t mainstream today (except in New Orleans’ traditional chicory coffee culture), but if prices soar, interest in coffee substitutes might tick up. There’s already a niche trend of chicory or mushroom-based coffee alternatives (though often for health reasons). If coffee hit truly astronomical prices, perhaps a small share of consumers would cut back on their caffeine habit or switch to tea – but that’s speculation. For now, most seem willing to pay a bit more to keep their coffee routine.

Surveys surprisingly show that while consumers aren’t happy about price hikes, a majority may support the idea of tariffs in principle. A late 2024 Ipsos poll found 56% of U.S. consumers favored these tariffs (perhaps believing it’s about fairness to American trade) even though they acknowledged it could lead to higher grocery bills. Of course, opinions might change once the costs hit wallets for real.

One thing is clear: coffee is deeply woven into daily life and the economy. Each dollar spent on coffee in the U.S. generates an estimated $43 of economic activity when you factor in all the jobs and businesses around it. So if people spend more on coffee, that could mean less spending on other things, or it could mean they absorb it because coffee is non-negotiable for them. In the next section, we’ll look at how the coffee industry – from farmers overseas to your local café – is coping and adapting to this new tariff-fueled reality.

Industry-Level Impacts: How Roasters, Retailers, and Importers Are Adapting

It takes a complex chain of businesses to bring coffee from a distant farm to your cup. This chain includes farmers in coffee-growing countries, international traders, importers, roasters who turn green beans into the aromatic brown coffee we recognize, and retailers (cafés, restaurants, supermarkets) that sell it to us. Tariffs on coffee reverberate through all these layers, and industry players are scrambling to respond.

Coffee importers and traders are on the front lines. They are the ones directly paying the import tariffs when the coffee lands in U.S. ports. For them, the immediate adaptation is logistical and financial: they must post larger bonds or cash to get goods through customs, manage paperwork for different tariff rates by origin, and make quick calls on redirecting shipments. Some may try to accelerate shipments from certain countries before higher tariffs kick in. (There was uncertainty about whether coffee already on ships by the tariff effective date might be exempt – an ambiguity that caused some frantic calls to customs officials.) Importers also have to communicate with their suppliers (the exporters and cooperatives in origin countries) – possibly pushing for lower prices from them to offset the tariff. However, many origin exporters operate on thin margins and can’t easily give discounts, especially since global coffee prices have been high. It’s a tough squeeze: someone in the chain has to eat the cost, and importers will aim to pass it downstream.

Roasters – the companies that actually roast and often package the coffee – range from huge corporations (think Nestlé, J.M. Smucker which makes Folgers, and Starbucks for its retail beans) to small boutique roasters in every city. They are feeling the pressure too. A Reuters piece titled “Import tax on coffee pressures US roasters already facing high prices” captured the mood: U.S. roasters were already dealing with near-record high raw coffee prices, and now tariffs pile on. Many roasters will have no choice but to raise their wholesale prices. Small gourmet roasters might explain the situation to their customers (some have started putting out blog posts or social media notes about rising costs due to tariffs and market conditions). Larger ones might quietly adjust list prices upward or shrink promotions.

Roasters also get creative in sourcing: as mentioned, they may seek alternate origins. Blending strategies could change. For instance, if a roaster used a lot of Vietnamese robusta in a blend for making espresso or instant coffee, they might look to replace some of that with robusta from another country like Brazil or Uganda. Brazil does produce some robusta (called conilon in Brazil), and while Brazil’s coffee now has a 10% U.S. tariff, that’s much less than Vietnam’s 46%. The catch: Brazil’s robusta production is limited (Brazil primarily grows arabica, a different variety). So there may not be enough non-Vietnam robusta in the world to completely substitute Vietnam’s supply to the U.S. Roasters could also tweak their recipes: perhaps using slightly more arabica and less robusta in certain blends, though that raises cost (arabica is pricier) and can change the flavor profile. This is a delicate dance – change the blend too much and consumers might notice their coffee tastes different.

For coffee retailers – which include everything from Starbucks and Dunkin’ to independent coffee shops and even restaurants/diners with coffee on the menu – the impact comes in the form of higher bean costs from their suppliers. Big chains like Starbucks often buy coffee well in advance and may have locked prices, they have some of their relationships with farmers (for specialty beans). They also tend to predominantly use arabica beans, sourcing from Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Those will mostly see the 10% tariff (except for some African or Asian origins that might be higher). While 10% is not as extreme as 46%, it’s still significant on top of already elevated prices. Major coffee chains will likely adjust their pricing gradually – we might see another round of price bumps on menu boards. Starbucks in recent years has raised prices periodically to cope with inflation and higher wage costs; tariffs give another reason.

Small independent cafés have it tougher: they often buy from local roasters or wholesalers who are raising prices. They operate on thin margins, so they might have to add a few cents to each cup. For a small shop, a decision like “Do we go from $2.50 to $2.75 for a drip coffee?” is hard, as they fear losing customers. But if all shops face the same pressures, it becomes an industry-wide adjustment that hopefully customers accept.

One adaptation for some businesses might be to diversify product lines. If selling straight coffee becomes less profitable, some coffee companies might push other items: tea (no tariffs on that, presumably), baked goods at cafés, or premium “experiential” coffee drinks that justify a higher price. Trying to add value beyond just the raw coffee.

Now, what about the coffee producers – the farmers in countries like Colombia, Ethiopia, or Indonesia? This is an important part of the industry impacted indirectly. U.S. tariffs don’t go into the pockets of farmers; the money goes to the U.S. government’s coffers. But farmers could still suffer if their buyers in the U.S. cut orders or demand lower prices to offset tariffs. For example, if an importer has to pay 10% to bring in Colombian coffee, they might pressure the Colombian exporter for a 10% lower price per pound to share the pain. That in turn could trickle down to the farm gate price, meaning farmers earn less for their crop. Alternatively, if some origins get partially shut out of the U.S., those farmers have to find other markets. The Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) has warned that trade barriers like tariffs can “limit coffee producers’ access to lucrative consumer markets, exacerbating economic disparities in the global coffee supply chain”. Coffee farming is already a tough livelihood – growers typically capture <10% of the final retail value of coffee. Tariffs risk squeezing them further unless the situation is resolved or they pivot to other buyers. The industry is aware of this and we might see renewed efforts by coffee associations to lobby on behalf of producers and consumers alike to remove coffee from the tariff list.

Indeed, industry groups are not taking this lying down. The National Coffee Association (NCA) – the leading trade group for the U.S. coffee industry – has been vocally opposed to coffee tariffs. NCA President & CEO William “Bill” Murray (no, not the actor, but a real coffee industry advocate!) pointed out that coffee supports 2.2 million U.S. jobs and adds $343 billion to the U.S. economy annually, all while relying on global trade. He emphasized that since we can’t grow most coffee here, our trade policies should ensure Americans can access their favorite beverage at a reasonable cost. The NCA successfully campaigned in 2020 to keep coffee out of an earlier round of tariffs (more on that in a moment), and in 2021 they cheered a truce with the EU that protected coffee from being caught in the crossfire. Now in 2025, the NCA and allied groups (like the Consumer Brands Association mentioned earlier) are likely lobbying intensely to remove or reduce these tariffs. One soft commodities analyst, Judith Ganes, predicted that the coffee industry will lobby hard to have these tariffs removed– she even expressed doubt that the tariffs will ultimately “stick,” suggesting they might be a short-lived bargaining tactic. Roasters and food manufacturers are undoubtedly making their voices heard in Washington, highlighting the damage to both businesses and consumers.

So, within the industry, there’s a mix of short-term coping strategies (raise prices, adjust blends, find new suppliers)and long-term efforts (political lobbying, possibly reshaping supply chains). The next question is: are these impacts felt differently in different parts of the country? Let’s explore any regional nuances.

Regional Differences: Are Some Parts of the U.S. Affected More?

Coffee is ubiquitous across the United States – from big cities with a café on every corner to rural truck stops brewing fresh joe. In broad strokes, all regions will feel the coffee tariff impacts, because higher wholesale costs and retail prices will spread nationwide. However, there are a few regional angles to consider:

• Hawaii and U.S. Territories: Hawaii is the one U.S. state that grows coffee commercially (famous for Kona coffee), and Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory, also has some coffee production. These domestically grown coffees are not subject to import tariffs (they’re local products). Does that mean Hawaii’s coffee industry will benefit? Possibly in a small way: if imported beans get pricier, Hawaiian coffee – which is a high-end, expensive origin to begin with – might become slightly more competitively priced relative to fancy imports. A few more domestic buyers might give Hawaii/Puerto Rican coffee a look. However, the scale is tiny – Hawaii produces less than one-tenth of one percent of the world’s coffee. It could never replace our import needs. At best, Hawaiian farmers might enjoy a bit more local demand or higher prices for their niche product. But for most consumers, Hawaiian coffee is a luxury (often $30+ per pound) and not a direct substitute for everyday Colombian or Brazilian coffee.

  
  

• Regions that Rely on Specific Imports: Certain parts of the country have historical ties to particular coffee types. For instance, on the West Coast and Northeast, the specialty coffee scene is strong – many high-end coffee shops pride themselves on single-origin coffees from Ethiopia, Kenya, Costa Rica, etc. Some of those African coffees might face different tariff rates (if not explicitly listed, many African nations weren’t singled out with high tariffs in the initial announcement, aside from notable ones like Ethiopia’s neighbor Kenya not on the list but for example Nigeria 14% if it exports coffee, and DR Congo 11%). Central American coffees (Guatemala, Honduras, etc.) got 10% tariffs. So a café in, say, Seattle or Boston that uses a lot of Guatemalan single-origin beans will see costs up ~10%. Meanwhile, a company that primarily uses Vietnamese robusta (common in some Vietnamese-style coffee houses or instant coffee factories) – perhaps more relevant in areas with Vietnamese-American communities like California or Texas – will see a much larger impact (46% tariff). Communities with specific coffee preferences could notice changes; for example, Vietnamese restaurants or cafes serving traditional phin-filter coffee may have to raise prices for that style of brew more than the average shop, because the specific coffee they import got so much more expensive.

• Port Cities and Supply Hubs: There might also be a regional economic effect on certain ports and logistics hubs. New Orleans has historically been a major coffee import port (it has massive coffee warehouses and roasting facilities nearby). Houston, New York/New Jersey, and Seattle are also big entry points for coffee imports. If import volumes shift – say, less coffee coming from certain countries – the businesses at those ports could see changes in activity. However, since overall coffee will still be imported (just from different origins), the ports might just see different bags than before, not necessarily less volume. Any region with a cluster of coffee roasters (Portland, Seattle, SF Bay Area, etc., known for coffee culture) will be buzzing about these tariffs, but the effect (higher bean costs) is fairly universal.

• Consumption Patterns: The Northeast U.S. tends to drink the most coffee per capita, according to some surveys, and the South the least, with the West and Midwest in between. However, these differences are not extreme – coffee is popular everywhere. Perhaps in places where coffee shop culture is very strong (again, Pacific Northwest, Northeast), consumers might be quicker to notice price hikes and voice concerns. In more price-sensitive areas or among lower-income populations, even small increases could cause more strain. But regionally, it’s hard to say anyone gets a pass – even the smallest towns often have a love for coffee (think of church coffee pots, convenience stores, etc.).

In summary, while the degree of impact might vary a bit (depending on what type of coffee a region or demographic favors), there isn’t a clear-cut scenario where one part of the U.S. escapes the tariff effect. The hit is nationwide because our coffee supply is global. One thing that is region-specific: is local efforts to adapt or advocate. For instance, a city with many roasters might band together to petition Congress or publicize the issue. A region with coffee-related jobs (like the roasting and distribution jobs around New Orleans or Seattle) might be particularly vocal about protecting those jobs from any downturn in demand.

Now that we’ve covered the consumer and industry effects and noted any regional nuances, let’s step back and look at why these tariffs came about now. What’s the policy context, and have there been any recent changes or relief in sight?

The Policy Context: Why Tariffs, and What’s Changing?

It might seem puzzling that the U.S. would slap tariffs on a product we don’t grow ourselves. Normally, tariffs are meant to protect domestic industries from foreign competition or to pressure other countries in trade negotiations. In the case of coffee, there’s no big domestic coffee farming industry to protect (Hawaii’s tiny output aside). So why target coffee?

The answer lies in broader trade policy strategy. These coffee tariffs came as part of a package of trade measures in 2025 dubbed “Liberation Day” tariffs by the administration. The U.S. President at the time (Donald Trump, who took office again in January 2025) viewed them as leverage to push other countries to negotiate “fairer” trade deals. He announced a baseline 10% tariff on all imports from all countries, plus additional tariffs on countries deemed to have unfair trade relationships. Coffee-producing countries fell into that latter category in this policy push. The idea floated was that the U.S. would remove these tariffs if other countries lowered their trade barriers too. In other words, coffee got caught up as a pawn in a larger trade chess game – a means to get other concessions, since it’s a high-value import that would get attention abroad.

This isn’t the first time coffee almost became collateral damage in a trade fight. Back in 2019–2020, during Trump’s previous term, the U.S. and the European Union were embroiled in a dispute over airplane subsidies (the Boeing vs Airbus case). Each side threatened tariffs on various goods. In mid-2020, the U.S. Trade Representative even considered 100% tariffs on certain European coffee products – specifically, roasted, instant, and decaffeinated coffee from the EU and UK. Europe doesn’t grow coffee but exports a lot of roasted coffee (think Italian espresso blends, German packaged coffee, etc.). The coffee industry was very alarmed; the NCA filed objections, urging that coffee be spared. Their advocacy paid off: by August 2020, the U.S. and EU struck a deal, and coffee was removed from the final retaliatory tariff list. Furthermore, in 2021, the U.S. and EU agreed to a five-year truce on that dispute, explicitly protecting coffee from being targeted. So, there is precedent for governments recognizing that coffee is a sensitive, essential import and ought to remain duty-free even amid trade wars.

However, the landscape changed in 2025 with a renewed protectionist approach. Initially, it looked like no country would be exempt – allies, adversaries, and everyone was on notice for tariffs. This included even close neighbors: at one point there was talk of a 25% tariff on all imports from Colombia (a major coffee source) due to a diplomatic tiff, but it was averted at the last minute. Also, tariffs on Canada and Mexico were paused for goods meeting trade agreement rules​after an outcry. But for the rest of the world’s coffee producers, the tariffs went ahead as planned in April 2025.

From a policy standpoint, these tariffs were implemented under U.S. trade laws that give the President broad powers (like Section 301 of the Trade Act, which was used in the U.S.-China trade war, or possibly a new Executive Order in this case). They are a negotiating tool – a means to an end, not necessarily a permanent state. Many observers believe the administration’s goal is to bring other countries to the table to reduce their tariffs or meet other U.S. demands (for instance, Vietnam was accused in the past of currency manipulation; tariffs could be pressure to address that). Coffee just ended up on the list perhaps because it’s a big import category for some of these countries and thus a pressure point.

What could change policy-wise? Negotiations or carve-outs could happen. If, say, Brazil or Vietnam quickly enters talks and makes some deal on trade issues, the U.S. might lift the extra tariffs on their coffee. Alternatively, Congress could step in – though that’s less likely in the short term, as trade policy is largely executive-driven nowadays. Public and industry pressure could also mount to carve out critical consumer goods like coffee. Already, lobbying efforts by coffee industry groups are underway to highlight the harm of these tariffs and potentially push for their removal. The NCA’s stance is that coffee is essential and should be exempted. If inflation and consumer anger rise, the administration might recalibrate.

It’s also worth noting that other countries could retaliate against U.S. exports in response to our tariffs, potentially sparking a broader trade war. The European Union, for example, reacted to the “Liberation Day” tariffs with plans to target U.S. products in return. While coffee isn’t a U.S. export, a tit-for-tat escalation creates a messy environment where it might be easier for both sides to agree to mutual tariff reductions down the road. In the meantime, we have a bit of an ironic situation: the United States, the world’s largest coffee consumer, is taxing its favorite drink as a way to influence trade outcomes. As a result, Americans face higher coffee prices by our own doing, something that hasn’t been true for generations.

Policy can change quickly – a new agreement or a change in administration could end the tariffs as swiftly as they began. There’s precedent for sudden reversals (for instance, the UK was set to face increased coffee tariffs but then got a temporary pause when the U.S. decided to not alienate close allies under USMCA rules). Consumers and businesses alike are watching closely for any policy updates.

Visualization of the new U.S. tariff rates (as of April 2025) on coffee from major producing/exporting countries. Vietnam faces a 46% tariff – the highest among them – while many Latin American producers face a 10% tariff. Such disparities are reshaping sourcing decisions for U.S. coffee importers.

The chart above illustrates how varied the new tariffs are: Vietnam at 46%, several Asian countries like Myanmar (44%), Thailand (36%), China (34%), Indonesia (32%), India (27%), Malaysia (24%), as well as the EU (20%) and Switzerland (31%) (the latter likely because Switzerland is a big hub for coffee trade and re-export). Meanwhile, key suppliers in the Americas – Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Honduras, Guatemala, etc. – are all at 10%. These numbers give a sense of how the policy is targeted. They also hint at potential winners and losers: countries not hit with huge tariffs might gain more business from U.S. buyers, while those with high tariffs could lose market share unless the policy shifts.

What’s Next for Your Coffee?

The intersection of trade policy and your coffee habit is a perfect example of how global economics can hit home in everyday ways. Tariffs on imported coffee have introduced a new wave of cost increases and adjustments in a market already dealing with challenges. We’ve seen that economically it raises prices and rejiggers supply chains, consumers are likely to pay more (and perhaps grumble while still sipping their brew), and the coffee industry is adapting as best it can – passing costs on, tweaking sourcing, and lobbying for relief. Regionally, no coffee drinker is truly insulated, though local factors might color the experience slightly.

What’s the outlook? In the short term, expect a bit of a jolt – and not just from caffeine. Prices at grocery stores and cafés will probably climb throughout 2025 if the tariffs remain. You might hear your local barista or the sign at your supermarket referencing “increased costs of coffee beans” as a reason for a few extra cents. Coffee companies will continue to voice their concerns. There could be some interesting innovation too: tough times sometimes spur new approaches, perhaps more efficient roasting processes, new blends, or efforts to source coffee from any origin not tariffed (some entrepreneurs might explore coffee from emerging producers or even lab-grown coffee alternatives).

In the long run, much hinges on the political arena. If trade negotiations succeed or a different policy direction is chosen, these tariffs could be reduced or eliminated, taking pressure off the coffee market. Indeed, by mid-2025, some analysts expressed optimism that cooler heads would prevail and coffee tariffs would be rolled back. Consumers and businesses alike are certainly hoping for that outcome. After all, coffee is something of a great unifier – as Bill Murray of the NCA said, “coffee is a cornerstone of US communities”, and it “cannot be grown in most of the United States, so relies on global trade”. Ensuring that this trade remains smooth and affordable is in everyone’s interest.

For now, though, we’re living through a real-time case study of tariffs in action. Next time you take a sip of your morning coffee, you’ll know a bit more about the journey (and the extra taxes) that went into that cup. It’s a complex blend of economics, policy, and our daily routines – truly coffee with a dash of trade politics.

And if that coffee tastes a tad bitter these days, well, it might not just be the dark roast – it could be the tariffs. Hang in there, coffee lovers, and let’s hope this particular storm in a coffee cup settles soon.